Wednesday 11 January 2023

F3 allele sharing to Sidon MBA

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F3 allele sharing of modern and ancient Levantine populations with Bronze Age Levant (Sidon MBA - likely same genetics as the Ancient Israelites). Higher the f3 estimate, the genetically "closer" the population. F3 is far superior than FST for small population sizes and for taking highly drifted groups like Samaritans into account.

You can see Iron Age & Hellenistic-Roman Era Lebanese are closest. What's surprising is how close Cypriots are. Let's see how much Sidon MBA ancestry they have.



Target: Cypriot
Distance: 1.1574% / 0.01157384
52.2Levant_Sidon_MBA
34.0GRC_Minoan_Lassithi
13.8Yamnaya_RUS_Samara


52.2% Sidon MBA! Now it makes a bit of sense. Phoenican ancestry likely? Lines up with their haplogroups as well, and with recorded history (Cyprus is right off Lebanon in a map). I don't think this is an overfitted model either, the f3 stats are quite clear on it. 

1 comment:

  1. The model is not overfited but it lacks proxies. Cypriots are definitely not 50% Minoan + Yamnaya aka 50% Mycenaean and not 50% Sidon.

    These below are G25 model, G25 only works good with proximal models, i know that its inaccurate when it comes to distal models, like neolithic ones. I've gotten similar results on qpAdm when it comes to proximal models.


    Target: Greek_Cypriot
    Distance: 0.8717% / 0.00871750
    35.6 4.Levant_Sidon_MBA
    25.8 1.Mycenaean_Greek_1350bc
    15.4 2.Anatolia_Center_Iron_Age
    15.0 3.Armenia_Aghitu_Anc
    7.6 5.South_Slavic_MNE_Doclea_Bjelovine
    0.6 9.Turkic_Oghuz_ROU_Ploiesti_MA

    Balkan and Slavic admix probably came from mainland Greeks so i added them as a proxy below.

    Target: Greek_Cypriot
    Distance: 0.8514% / 0.00851352
    33.2 4.Levant_Sidon_MBA
    21.0 1.Mycenaean_Greek_1350bc
    15.8 2.Anatolia_Center_Iron_Age
    15.2 Greek_Peloponnese
    14.2 3.Armenia_Aghitu_Anc
    0.6 9.Turkic_Oghuz_ROU_Ploiesti_MA

    Of course if you just run these 2 you are going to get 50/50 but its not real in terms of admixture/ancestry.

    Target: Greek_Cypriot
    Distance: 2.6182% / 0.02618152
    51.2 4.Levant_Sidon_MBA
    48.8 1.Mycenaean_Greek_1350bc


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